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2009年12月28日星期一

Lessons learned in 2009 and Revolution for year 2010

During this holiday seasons, market is not expected to have much surprises as we are heading towards end of 2009.

It’s good to take this opportunity to identify stocks which worth investing…other than that, I think it’s important to look back on what happened in year 2009 as well as lessons learned so that we will not make the same mistake twice.

2009 is (going to ‘was’) an exciting year for me. Beginning of May, with my CDS account activated, I started my first online share trading. In fact, I started to look into shares market but only have some guts to go in to ‘test water’ in May 09. Ever since that time, alliance was ‘form’ between me and 健忘. Starting from picking the stocks ‘quite’ blindly to the current ‘more in-depth’ fundamental analyst.

The main aim, of cause, is to earn $ from the stock markets. Buy low and sell high (I thought it was easy initially).

Obviously, I missed the most excitement of the year where most stocks shoot in March/April time frame. However, May time frame was still quite a good time frame for me to go in.

Initially I did not have much study on the stock which I wanted to buy. Rule of thumb during that time was stock price. Stock price is the main concern, as my capital is small initially, anything more than 50 cents will not in my list. My thinking that time was, I want to get as much lots as I can so that I can get maximum return.

SAAG & HUAAN were my first 2 stocks. Luckily, everything goes well in early of May. With my buy in price of 0.25 for SAAG and 0.336 for HUAAN respectively, I earned 50% from SAAG and 35% from HUAAN.

What an encouraging result for a beginner like me (At least this is what I think during that time). I started to think that earning of 20%/month from stock market is so easy, and this became my monthly target. Start to calculation how much I can earn by year end of I achieve my monthly target. The return/figures really drive me crazy.

My first lost came in when I bought LCL in mid of May. The certain prices drop of ~5% within a session make me panic. Quick and cheap selling out, make my first lost in KLCI. The idea during that time was, anything drop more than 5% (I do not know much on fundamental during that time), sell it, keep the capital. The next few days, LCL shoot up more than 10%...what a trick….I still do not realize where and what were my mistakes for this…and this lead me to more lost….

With some recommendations from newspaper and finance magazine, we bought in Kurasia. During that time frame, Kurasia was a slow moving yet low volume stock. We do not have much understanding on its fundamental, we just know that, if it’s moving too slow and low volume, do not buy it next time…buy others with more volume to maximum our return.

With this, Kurasia was sold with a merely 6% return, and we think that we are so genius who able to ‘wash hand’ and make some profit at least with this kind of stock. In fact, we lost the opportunity for 100% return from Kurasia. Quarter reports for Kurasia improved from quarter to quarter and shoot to over 70 cents in less than 2-3 months time frame. Opportunities are for those with well prepared. We just do not know how to appreciate this opportunity that time and eventually, we missed it. I think this was one of the most serious mistakes in 2009 which we did not focus on its fundamental.

The next mistakes happened in Jun 09. Without much study, I bought in LIONCOR and OILCORP in Jun. The long waited consolidation eventually came in Jun and I’m stuck with these 2 stocks. With the lost case scenario study with 健忘,I was lucky that I’m able to make a decision and cut loss during that time, else now I would have being crying with both my LIONCOR and OILCORP…OILCORP moved in to PN17. This was my biggest lost in 2009, with around RM1.3k losses. I got to thanks 健忘 once again for this…:P. Second mistake after Kurasia.

Ever since that, we only focus on stocks with fundamental (still not yet in-depth study). However, we are still stubborn and aim to pay quick and short. Buy low sell high…but this round are for those stocks with fundamental, SALCON, EKSONS, MKLAND, DIALOG, HSL, DUTALND were all our targets previously…again, this lead to the third mistake which caused the stuck with MKLand till now.

Buy low sell high in a short time frame for DUTALND, with a merely earn of 6% in one single day and felt so happy. Done this again for HSL, again around 6% return, in fact, I got felt a bit proud of this. Genius, ….really genius till all capital stuck with MKLAND, EKSONS, during that time, we study and knew HSL will shoot before 2010 Budget, but all cash was stuck and I missed the boat again. I missed the good low buy in price, of cause HSL has now consolidate back to RM1.07 level but still much higher compared to our initial buy in price.

I’m pleased that with so many mistakes make in 2009, I’m still able to make a profit of around 15% in the stock market, consider that I only start trading in May, the result still not that bad.

Moving forward, I will only focus on stocks with good fundamental with potential growth and dividend as return. Mistakes make in 2009 shall be not repeated in 2010. >26% of annual return is my main target and New Year revolution…I know, together, we can make this happen….Happy New Year 2010 everyone.

Special thanks 健忘 to for inviting me to this interesting yet challenging world of stocks market. Look forward for 2010…

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