1.Borrowings [RM'000]
LB | LB/P | SB | SB/P | TB | TB/P | |
2006 | 3,031 | 1,059 | 4,090 | |||
2007 | 6,007 | 98.19% | 1,096 | 3.49% | 7,103 | 73.67% |
2008 | 5,344 | -11.04% | 735 | -32.94% | 6,079 | -14.42% |
Mar,09 | 5,178 | -3.11% | 5,620 | 664.63% | 10,798 | 77.63% |
June,09 | 24,959 | 382.02% | 675 | -87.99% | 25,634 | 137.40% |
Sept,09 | 24,810 | -0.60% | 667 | -1.19% | 25,477 | -0.61% |
这方面,LB = Long Terms Borrowings 是常年处在RM10M 以下,今年第二季突然暴增382%到接近RM25M,实在让人感到惊讶。健忘翻查了Deleum今年第二季的季度报告,却没办法找到长期借贷暴增的原因,个人估计,应该和收购案有关系吧?
就算这样,RM24M的LB并不是一项威胁,因为SB = Short Borrowings 只有RM667k,与LB总合起来也只有区区的RM25.4M。只要Deleum的现金流维持在RM30M(三年多来的记录显示最低RM30M,目前RM50M),那样的借贷是撼不动Deleum的根基。
不过,这也不代表我们无须留意借贷的趋势,以下是Total Borrowing vs Cash Flow Ratio:
TB/CF | |
2006 | |
Dec | 9.96% |
2007 | |
Mar | 11.25% |
June | 9.07% |
Sept | 6.60% |
Dec | 11.59% |
2008 | |
Mar | 11.08% |
June | 8.31% |
Sept | 13.01% |
Dec | 16.70% |
2009 | |
Mar | 29.70% |
June | 42.79% |
Sept | 50.58% |
根据3年来的记录显示,借贷总数一般上不超过现金流的20%,但打从08年中开始,是有增加的趋势,直至上个季度为止,借贷总数占现金流比数已经提高到50%了。健忘有理由相信Deleum管理层是为了维持现金流,一方面方便派息和对可能再现的第二波金融危机做出适当的资金调度准备,所以提高长期借贷,另一方面可以顺利地进行Penaga Dresser等子公司的收购行动。反正长期借贷的摊还期可以是1年或1年以上,对于还债这方面,不构成“还不起”等问题。
2. Current Ratio,Acid Test Ratio & DER
Curr Ratio | Acid Test | DER | |
2006 | |||
Dec | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.10 |
2007 | |||
Mar | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.58 |
June | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.53 |
Sept | 1.48 | 1.46 | 1.42 |
Dec | 1.90 | 1.85 | 0.70 |
2008 | |||
Mar | 1.54 | 1.51 | 1.02 |
June | 1.80 | 1.77 | 0.74 |
Sept | 1.89 | 1.81 | 0.72 |
Dec | 1.73 | 1.65 | 0.71 |
2009 | |||
Mar | 1.43 | 1.36 | 0.85 |
June | 1.67 | 1.56 | 0.88 |
Sept | 1.55 | 1.48 | 1.01 |
Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities > 1.2
Acid Test Ratio
= (Current Assets - Inventoris)/Current Liabilities > 1.0
DER = Total liabilities/Shareholder's Fund < 3.0
个人觉得Current Ratio 与 ATR 都处于健康水平,DER则在上个季度稍微提高,却算不上进入危险水平。不过,以防万一,我们来看看季度的应收账款天数(Debtor's Days),应付账款天数(Creditor's Days),以及存货周转天数(Stock's Days):
SD | DD | CD | |
2007 | |||
Mar | 1.23 | 88.10 | 96.65 |
June | 1.43 | 74.84 | 90.96 |
Sept | 1.69 | 79.16 | 89.61 |
Dec | 2.26 | 53.27 | 49.50 |
2008 | |||
Mar | 4.01 | 142.58 | 143.45 |
June | 3.40 | 94.66 | 112.83 |
Sept | 6.96 | 119.41 | 106.11 |
Dec | 6.15 | 105.23 | 92.88 |
2009 | |||
Mar | 5.64 | 79.60 | 81.42 |
June | 8.14 | 76.76 | 88.18 |
Sept | 6.89 | 91.28 | 98.66 |
相比去年,SD,DD和CD都相对处于低位,健忘认为还是健康的。可是一路走来,季度攀升确是让人有些担忧。来到这里,要谢谢蛋散兄在论坛的无私分享,健忘差点迷失在这三项指标中,还好有蛋散兄的指引...不过我们的数据似乎有些出入。
3.Cash Flow
Cash Flow | CF/GP | |
2006 | ||
Mar | 49,365 | 4.71 |
June | 78,281 | 6.67 |
Sept | 46,398 | 8.49 |
Dec | 41,049 | 3.52 |
2007 | ||
Mar | 43,409 | 3.89 |
June | 104,542 | 7.56 |
Sept | 90,075 | 7.23 |
Dec | 61,276 | 4.69 |
2008 | ||
Mar | 61,414 | 8.24 |
June | 78,718 | 8.34 |
Sept | 46,734 | 2.90 |
Dec | 36,045 | 2.18 |
2009 | ||
Mar | 36,354 | 2.01 |
June | 59,909 | 3.00 |
Sept | 50,367 | 2.33 |
最后一项的现金流,处于中等水平,并没有特别减少的迹象,相反地,比去年同期多出9.9%。
我们再留意一下Cash Flow vs Operatoing Profit,这一点,必须〉1.0
CF/GP | |
2006 | |
Mar | 4.71 |
June | 6.67 |
Sept | 8.49 |
Dec | 3.52 |
2007 | |
Mar | 3.89 |
June | 7.56 |
Sept | 7.23 |
Dec | 4.69 |
2008 | |
Mar | 8.24 |
June | 8.34 |
Sept | 2.90 |
Dec | 2.18 |
2009 | |
Mar | 2.01 |
June | 3.00 |
Sept | 2.33 |
看整个记录现金流两倍于每季盈利是健康有余的,不过和过去相比是逊色了一些。健忘不认为在现金方面是个问题,一家好的公司,现金流自然不应该少过盈利,但也不该过高,如果太高,可能表示该公司并没有好好地运用手上的钱来拓展业务。
只要Deleum 的现金流维持在健康水平,那绝对不构成任何问题。
结论
盈利篇中Deleum是上乘,资产与债务方面,这家油气公司也不见得有太大的问题,除了借贷比以往增加一些,其他一切都相当顺畅。
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